суббота, 12 декабря 2020 г.

Russia Fully Pivots East

 Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made an important statements about relations between Russia and the EU, specifically, Germany. This happened at the annual meeting of the Russian International Affairs Council. Lavrov pointed out that:


“apparently, the European Union has given up any attempts to become one of the centers in the emerging multipolar world order and is now simply taking its cues from the US. Germany’s policy on a number of issues tells us that this is the course Berlin has chosen, as it reaffirms its intention to preserve Germany’s undisputed leadership within the EU. France’s position is somewhat different. The prevailing notion is that the European Union is now giving up any ambitions of becoming a center of power in a multipolar world. And if France itself decides to compete for this role… well, we’ll see how it goes.”


What Russia has finally fully admitted to itself and has started acting upon is the same thing that the UK has discovered in its Brexit fiasco, where talks have fully broken down and a savage divorce is in the process: the EUSSR is incapable of negotiating in good faith, is incapable of being trusted when its word is given and is at best a bit player on the world scene, run by blind, often drunk geriatric egoists.

But this is not the first time that Russia has stumbled upon this truth or truths. Back in 2014 the Russian government announced that it had given up on all further talks with the EU on a visa-free travel regime, that after 12 years of pointless negotiations where the EU never for a second negotiated in good faith.

As a matter of fact, the Euro-parliament is full of people with at best apathy if not outright Russophobic hatred when it comes to Russia and anything Russian. More often then not, these people are but a reflection of the ruling elites of their home countries and even often of the very people who inhabit the lands.

European elites' hatred of all things Russian, of the very existence of Russia is nothing new. It has a rich history of well over 1200 years, filled with enough rotting corpses to cover much of Europe. The elites and to a lesser degree the common folks, have always and continue to love entertaining their supposed superiority to all things Russian, often in abject ignorance of what is the reality in the world's biggest nation.  Well that is, until they need Russian gold or Russian blood to save them from one Eurofolly or another.

In the past, however, regardless of this deep loathing of Russians, the various Euro states and statelets could at least be counted on to put their own economic or political well being ahead of these feelings, be it by lying about a common Europe from edge to edge, to include Russians in  participating in cooperative economic programs.

All of this is of the past. Led by strumpets like Merkel and Macron and their second tier shills in Bulgaria, Romania, Austria, Poland and Italy, they have sacrificed everything, be it they realize this or not, to the whims of their owners in DC. These two bit players have put all their hopes on the Harris presidency (we all realize Biden will not last out 2021) but will be sorely disappointed to discover the shake down will only worsen.

As for Russia, it has finally announced what it was already in the process of doing for the past 6 years, pivoting east, fully engaging Asia, with China being the main but not the only partner and cutting ties with the Europeans.

The Navalny case was just the last nail in that coffin but there were many many more: NATO armies massed on the Russian borders, US nukes being returned to Europe, Nord Stream 2, Winter Olympics, South Stream, Third Energy Package, endless sanctions and so on. Even the Russian rescue efforts sent to help save Italy from Covid led collapse and mass casualties, were met by vitriol hatred from the EU intelligentsia and journalism, many of whom were in that same suffering Italy.

All of this has not gone unnoticed by Russians, by those common, every day, salt of the earth Russians, whose fantasy love affair with all things European has long been drying up.

Europe is about to discover what Russians always knew but Euro egoism was always to big to penetrate: that they needed Russia a lot more than Russia needs them.

For starters, lets review energy. Russia does not need any, she has all that will ever be needed. Europe however, even with nuclear power, was and is an energy importer. With the brain damaged caste running Europe and closing down all nuclear power plants and coal plants, only gas is left. Russian gas, however, will no longer be left for European growing demands. Instead, the newest pipeline completing the planning phase is the Power of Siberia 2, which will run through Mongolia from western Siberia. Those are the same fields that are now feeding Europe. Chinese gas sales are additionally more lucrative then Europe's. As Chinese (and Mongolian) demand grows, the western exports will continue curtailing, starving the Europeans.

Luckily for Europe, even with the North Sea and Norwegian output shrinking, they will still have the US. Unluckily, they will still have the US, whose gas is already 2,5 times the cost and who does not have even nearly enough tankers for delivery or infrastructure in place to accept.

An impoverished EU and a manufacturing base whose main energy input is set to skyrocket, will remove many competitors from the world stage for Russian manufactures, or at the least force them to move to cheaper climes, like Russia.

Russian markets have been shrinking for Euro exports for half a decade and in many cases, quite dramatically. This was in part the brilliant move by the EU's leaders, in attacking the Russian currency and halving its value. This, almost over night, made all EU goods twice as expensive. Euro agricultural exports have all but fully collapsed, destroying or heavily damaging whole sectors in the EU. Hi-tech, machine construction, finished goods have also been severely curtailed as import substitution has stood up dozens of new manufacturing facilities.

Russian rubles were 30-40% of the tourist monies in the southern European nations. That is also a thing of the past, while only part has stayed and expanded in Russia, countries like Turkey, Egypt and SE Asia have sucked up a large portion of the rest. 

Even logistically, the Baltic statelets, whose economy lived off of Russian logistics trade and EU handouts, have found their borders closed and their ports empty. Russia has quietly, without responding to the endless Baltic crudeness in her direction, built from scratch and or built up existing ports into top of the line mega-ports.

What Europe now has is over $150 billion in losses from sanctions, a neighboring mega state that no longer cares about Europe except as a target for nuclear missiles in a retaliatory strike and a bunch of defunked states and statelets. Some are direct leeches on the EU, such as bankrupt Poland, Bulgaria and Romania as well as the three Baltic statelets. Even Finland, whose economy was built first on Russian trade but whose tirades have been aimed at Russia, has seen companies like Viola close their factories at home and move them Russia. Others are EU creations but not part of the EU.

European Frankenstein creation Ukraine, has become one  big nazi filled headache for its EU creators. Nazi Ukraine that is in one civil war already, lasting 6 years and on the cusp on at least three others and just may launch a desperate war on Russia in the hope of sucking in Europe to bleed and die for it. Childless Europe can ill afford it, with a hungry Turkey on its edge, a Turkey which does not abort its children and has already become a major demographic in most of western Europe.

All Russia has to do now, is turn her back on the Europeans and leave them be for 15-20 years. What shriveled, distraught failed states and economies are left, will be much easier to deal with, even if our ambassadors will have to learn Turkish or Arabic to communicate.

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