вторник, 22 сентября 2020 г.

Nord Stream To Far

Last week, the EU Parliament passed a resolution to halt the final construction of Nord Stream 2 and called on EU member states to "continue to isolate Russia in international forums," encouraging the European Council "to prioritize the approval of the EU Magnitsky-style human rights sanctions against the Russian regime." This is something that outgoing Frau Merkel has sought, as a way to terminate her commitments.

Many may not appreciate what such a move means, a move that now allows the German government to annul, via the EU, its agreements with Russia and Austria and its own companies without paying out $20 billion in liabilities and penalties.

So for our readers we will go through the winners and losers of this fiasco swan song.

Winners
1. US gas companies
With Nord Stream 2 down, US LNG, at 2,5 times the cost, is the big winner. That is the obvious one. The US can not supply the EU totally for the simple fact that over 300 tankers are required and there are less than 200 in the world. Plus, during winter, prices of gas can easily be increased to 4-5 times the price of Russian gas.

2. US Government (Neocons and Neolibs)
The EU will now become even more a slave of Washington, who at a whim can and most certainly will delay its tankers or just turn them around. Additionally with tankers, the EU reserves will never be fully filled ahead of winter, so  US control over its European vassals will be ever greater.

3. Merkel and her Cabal
Merkel has done a lot for Germany: allowed its continued occupation by the US military for the past 16 years, fully subverted the German media and intelligence to the service of DC, flooded Germany with population replacements from the ME and north Africa, allowed mass rapes of German women to go unpunished, subverted Christianity in Germany, lowered Russian-German relations to just shy of Cold War era, destroyed millions of jobs with her anti Russian sanctions and so on. As a matter of fact, in post WW2 Germany, there has never been a bigger traitor of the German nation(s).

So after such an illustrious career, Mother Merkel wants more ... and who has the best cushioned jobs? Why the Altantist cabals and with this move she has secured their blessing.

4. Poland and Ukraine.
The EU's biggest leech, Poland, will now be able to ramp up transport charges on the gas heading West, safe in the knowledge its position is now secured. Same goes for the klepotcratic nazi colony of the US-EU known as Ukraine. So Germans and other peoples, be prepared to doll out more and more. This is of course a short term win, as the US strategy is to knock out all gas from the East to the EU, but beggars can not be picky.

5. China
The EU continues the work of its Neocon masters at home, attacking Russia in every possible way and making the already reality of Russian-Chinese alliance all the more firmly set.

6. Russian People
In the medium term the political pressure to find better uses for gas at home will only grow. This includes continued gassification of villages and suburban sprawl and public and private transportation.

Losers
1. German Citizens
Germans citizens, especially the pensioners are already stretched and now they will be hit even harder. Such is the consequences of stupid decisions during elections. With Covid Pandemic Weariness and mass demonstrations already hitting the German cities, a cold winter and its carry on massive spike in US gas or Polish/Ukrainian transit fees, may finally be enough to bring out the catatonic Germans in mass.

2. German Manufacturing
Already with one of the highest manufacturing costs in the world, German manufacturing can ill afford to get even more expensive. Many more factories will be forced to shutter or abandon the floundering German ship. This, of course, feeds right back into #1 above.

3. All EU Citizens
Gas price increases in Germany means gas price increases in all of the poverty-austerity stricken economies of the modern EUssr. Under EU laws, every member can buy up any other member's gas supplies, if they have the cash and the Germans have more cash then most of the others put together.

4. EU Business
This action is a shot across the bow of Chinese and every other non-EU company that is looking to sign business deals and investments. At any moment, a pseudo elected pseudo governmental body can annul these deals on a whim and there is no appeal or penalties that are applicable. This makes all EU statelets a whole new category of risk.

5. Neocons
Often to stupid to realize they are working against themselves, the Neocons have made sure that Russia has China's back, fully. Right when they are heating a financial, trade and possible hot war up with the number 3 military power, they have made sure the #2, who has plenty of systems that the #1 does not even come close to, is fully backing #3. And unlike America, Chinese and Russian forces are not scattered all over the world. They are kept close and locally out gun the US and NATO.

6. Russian Atlantists
The pro US, EU elements in the Russian elite have been having a very bad run of it lately. With Medvedev's removal, their best courtier is out. The elements who replaced them see things for what they are not for what they would like them to be: US and EU are not friends, not partners. At the very best, they are competitors.

7. Russian People
Gas prices will most likely rise,, as Miller, head of Gazprom will probably raise prices in the short term to make up for losses.

So, in the end, we will see what the long term effects will be, but for the people of the EU promise nothing good. If you have any suggestions for one's I have missed, please let me know.

пятница, 11 сентября 2020 г.

The Case of America's Energy Double Standards

In the Orthodox Faith we are often taught to pray for our foes and enemies who are sent to us by God to force us into taking actions that we should be taking but are not. Examples of this is the whole of the sanctions regimes of the West against Russia, over the past 7 years.

Thanks to these sanctions, Russian agriculture is booming, re-industrialization is underway, the further integration of Eurasian Union and alliance with China and rearming of the military with dozens of new technologies entering the civilian market space from this rearming.

So, now we have the American drive to save the Germans and Europeans  at large from evil Russian hydrocarbons. Russian hydrocarbons are enslaving Europe with their low prices and stable delivery and getting in the way of American exports of Freedomcarbons that run anywhere from 150-250% higher in cost and due to that ocean obstacle, can not meet the EU's volume needs.

True, Poland has been buying US gas, but Poland is an impoverished de-industrialized puppet of DC and to boot, the expensive gas is paid for by EU handouts...aka welfare at a national level.

Trump has read Merkel and the German vassals lecture after lecture degenerating them for Nord Stream 2 and for the purchase of evil Russian gas. How can the Germans follow this suicide course when their very sanctity of democracy is at risk? Why should America defend Germany from the mythical pending Russian (Chinese, Klingon, Death Star) invasion when the Germans refuse to pay twice as much for American gas? Of course this gas will make already expensive German goods much more expensive, already impoverished German middle class that much more squeezed, but this is for Freedom! After all, Freedom is NOT free and for some reason the Germans have been bucking the simple fact that they need to pay and pay till it hurts.

Stage Right, steps in Mr. Double Standards.

Then comes the news of US heavy oil purchases from Russia: 9 million barrels as of August, more than in the past 16 years and much more to come before the year's end.

You see, by sanctioning Venezuelan oil exports and stealing Venezuelan government funds in US banks, Mr. Trump and his cohorts have doomed US Gulf of Mexico refineries built to process Venezuelan heavy crude, to bankruptcy. Something, of course, had to be done. So steps in the evil anti-freedom Russian imports and they are cheaper to boot.

And the morality lectures to the Germans? Well, its one thing when dealing with bought and paid for vassals and another when dealing with your own needs.

четверг, 3 сентября 2020 г.

The New Cold War Is About To Heat Up Again

 

With the West's Maidan 2.0 attempts in Belarus, COVID led economic super recessions and general unrest in the streets, the ruling elites in the West are desperate to deflect attention from their own ineptitude to something different.

In steps the Belarus elections, God's gift of opportunity for chaos makers.

In the elections, Lukashenko won with 80%. Though this is most likely inflated somewhat, it is beyond a doubt that the vast silent majority supports him. The West's Trojan horse, Tihonovskaya, a previous unknown, barely scored 10%. Other candidates picked over the rest.

Her platform, or rather the one written for her, is nothing short of Ukraine 2.0 with all the foreseeable bloody results.

As usual for a western backed candidates, there was the usual denial of results, accusations of fraud with little evidence and before the count was even underway. What then follows is not a legal process but an attempt to grab power by force, played out in two stages: 1. Mass demonstrations, often times with paid for demonstrators bused in from all corners to include many from neighboring NATO nations. While basically peaceful, they attempt to occupy key terrain in the major cities and to crash economic activities and government services. PR globally is handled first by US/EU sponsored NGOs and second by the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of said nations.

If the sitting government makes concessions to the mob, they will be instantly presented with more and more radical demands. The aim of the game is always the same, removal of the sitting government and its replacement with a "democratic" government that is Western owned or beholden.

2. When and if the above does not work, the next stage is to ship in the armed thugs and try to take power directly by the barrel of the gun. This is a more preferred form of change for the agents of chaos, as the smoke created allows for the most radical and the most owned elements to slay the nation outright and not by slow bleed. While the dust is settling, radical decrees are passed, key resources and infrastructure given away for pennies to foreign politicos and financiers and opposition suppressed and or murdered. This is the modern form of democracy as the West propagates it. The same West that happily gasses, beats and rubber bullets its own destitute masses into submission in the name of Democracy.

Of course, Lukashenko is not Yanukovich and will not wimp out and leave his police to be Molotoved and shot to death. He has already stated he will fight and the military has placed itself squarely behind him.

Likewise, in Russia, this is no longer the government of 2013 with delusions that a deal can be cut with the West. The Medvedev led Atlantist clique is mostly gone and the murderous lessons of Ukraine and the attempted genocide of Russians hailed as democracy, is very fresh. Russia will fight to keep Belarus in her orbit and stable.

If only for these reasons the Cold War 2.0 is set to heat up and deepen. But there is a plethora of other reasons why relations between the US and its NATO states and Russia will continue to sour to levels of the Cuban Missile Crisis or worse.
 
1. Syria: the illegal, immoral and piratical US occupation and outright theft of Syrian oil is escalating. Never mind how illegal this is by the US' own laws and how cynical Trump's statements are "We've secured the oil". Gun battles with the Syrian army have already occurred several times and just last week, four US servicemen where injured in a crash trying to stop legal Russian patrols in Syria.

2. Navalni, a petty ultra-nationalist pulling 2-3% of the vote was poisoned, well maybe, according to the Germans, with of course no proof provided, by mystical Novichok, again. As before, the world's deadliest poison was unable to kill anyone. Yes, we have noticed that like a bad serial, the plots are all the same, so that the plebs will not get confused. We are still waiting for the white hats black hats to be dredged up from the 1950s.
 
The Kremlin has nothing to gain, but this Maidan Russia failure is much more valuable to the US dead than alive and now that he has been transferred to Germany, all kinds of "proof" can be manufactured. To that end, Merkel herself has allowed herself to be cornered over Nord Stream 2. On this later. 
 
3. China: the US-China financial and power struggles are heating up. Of course, any smart American would try to get Russia on their side. Luckily for China, in today's reality, smart and American politics is oxymoronic. So anti Russian tensions increase in direct proportion to anti Chinese, and as Russian becomes a full blown ally of China, those tensions and attacks from the West increase even more. The beatings will continue until moral improves.

4. Nord Stream 2: with US LNG to expensive for Europe and Germany finally deciding that starving for their overlords in DC and Houston is a revolution to far, the US and its dictatorial ambassador to Berlin, have found themselves without leverage. Be fearful of the evil Russians is the song the US politicians are screaming off key for the past 3 years and yet Mother Merkel, with Alternative Future for Germany party breathing down her pant suite collar, is not responding. As a matter of fact, many German politicians are telling the US to go shag off. The US response has gone the usual route of sanctions and a mass pressure offensive to stop what is inevitable. Well, thanks to Navalni's timely "poisoning", maybe not so inevitable. That good vassal Poland is about to loose billions more in transfer fees that would otherwise be used to pay for US bases in Poland, does not help any either.

5. Covid Vaccine: oh, this one has to be the worst blow of all. After all the preparatory hype of the pandemic of the century. Its not easy blowing up the latest version of the common cold (all common cold viruses are coronaviruses) into the plague to end all plagues. To be able to bring the paranoia to such a state that most of the world goes into self murdering economic shutdown, that is just mastery. The only solution touted by all those special interests from the West, and China, is none other than a common cold vaccine, er a COVID-19 vaccine. Notice how much more menacing it becomes in caps? 
 
Everything was set, a world stage of desperation and irrational fear. The economic pain is huge, and a second and upteenth wave is promised and only the vaccines being developed by the US, UK and Germany will allow the world to breath. We will not include China here, as all Europeans already know to fear China irrationally like their American counterparts. 
 
Then, out of the blue, the nation that is just a petrotank (McCaine), a nation that makes nothing (Obama), steps in and registers the first effective vaccine for COVID-19. Worse yet, these commie bastards not only spit in the eye of the oligarchy, but they even offer to pass the technology to other nations at rock bottom prices and maybe even for free. Twenty seven nations have already lined up, include 1.2 billion patients of India and regional heavy weight and American vassal, Brazil. Billions lost in a puff of smoke and even the full weight of the Western MSM anti-PR could not stop or slow it down. Is it any surprise that Washington sanctioned the laboratories that produced the vaccine Sputnik V, last week?

6. Iran: even all the US vassals rebelled on that vote, including the British who actually found a vertebra in their long absentee backbone. The US is trying to retrograde financial control over Iran, now that the military option is out, as it was shown that Iran can strike back with pinpoint precision on the US and its allies in the ME. Of course, Russia and China are the main sanctions targets here as well.
 
Will things change if Trump looses? Not a chance.

At this point, with Kamala Harris instantly screaming that the day she was choosen as VP for Biden, Russian hackers attacked her, it is obvious that relations with Russia will only continue to deteriorate regardless of who sits the American throne, with all likelihood of turning hot sooner or later.

Can the failing US empire handle a two front economic or worse hot world war against Russia and China and a host of other nations? US politicians probably have not thought so far.
 
But what business should be thinking is the continued loss of the Russian and now Chinese markets, as well as the very rapid emergence of Russian competitors on the global markets, now that the Russian government has been galvanized by US threats and sanctions. That these same manufacturing businesses have said little and done even less to brake the slide tells one that either they have no realization of what is actually happening or that they themselves are basically sidelined.